Obama's ratings to equal Bush's by July 4?

Fox News reports on Opinion Dynamics' latest poll.

One month into Obama's term, 60 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president, down from 65 percent three weeks ago (27-28 January 2009). Similarly, the portion of people that disapproves has increased to 26 percent, up from 16 percent. Almost all of the change can be attributed to a decrease in approval and an increase in disapproval among Republicans. In fact, among Obama's party faithful, his job approval has gone up from 85 percent in late January to 90 percent today.
Views of Obama as a person have also dipped. Today 68 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 25 percent unfavorable. Last month Obama had his highest favorable rating to date when 76 percent of Americans said they had a positive opinion and 15 percent unfavorable (13-14 Jan 2009). His average favorable rating for the last six months is 59 percent, with the lowest being 56 percent in October 2008.

An interpretation of this data would be that the BHO approval rating has declined at a rate of about 1/4 point per day. At the current level of 60% that leaves a margin for a 32% further decline to match President Bush's lows.Using the rate of decline it will take just 135 days more to get there. Based on the poll date of February 18 I am predicting a Bush like job approval rating for Obama for appropriately the July 4th weekend.

Dana Blanton, Director of Public Opinion Research at Fox News is credited with this Fox News story. Her story has an interesting dichotomy.

Sentiments are split on whether the new administration has already brought real change to Washington. So far, 45 percent see real change from the Obama administration and 46 percent say it is more of the "same partisan politics." About one in five Democrats (21 percent) thinks the Obama administration is bringing more of the same partisan politics and about the same number of Republicans thinks Obama has already brought real change (18 percent).

She equates a 21 percent negative among Democrats - bringing the same partisan politics to a 18 percent supposed negative among Republicans - that Obama has already brought real change. I would submit that not all those Republicans who thought Obama has brought real change considered that a positive. The hopey-changey thingy may be real but not necessarily good.